Japan eye the knockouts: a new-manager test for Tunisia

In 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F, Japan aim to reach the knockout phase for a third successive tournament, having last failed to escape the group in 2014. The Samurai Blue snatched a late 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, fighting back from a goal down twice, and now face an easier opponent knowing a win would all but mean progress.

Tunisia, meanwhile, suffered the second-heaviest defeat of the opening round, losing 5-1 to Sweden — only Curaçao (7-1 to Germany) lost worse. A similar humiliation in a warm-up against Belgium (5-0) cost manager Sabri Lamouchi his job. Hervé Renard was swiftly appointed in the hope of fresh energy and direction.

According to SI.com, statistically reaching four points means a very small chance of group-stage elimination — a helpful quirk of the new expanded format. Japan have drawn once, refusing to give in against a highly ranked European nation, and now face a team humiliated so badly in its opener that the manager was immediately fired.

Tunisia were a bastion of solidity in qualifying but were left in disarray by Sweden, hard to fix on the fly. As long as Japan turn up and play their game, victory is likely.

A key talking point is the "new-manager bounce". How much upside Tunisia gain from firing Lamouchi and bringing in Renard is unclear. The suave Frenchman has considerable tournament experience and masterminded Saudi Arabia's win over Argentina in 2022. Japan, by going all the way with the Netherlands — widely tipped to win the group — showed what they are capable of; Tunisia are limited by comparison.

With a new manager, changes make sense for Tunisia. Goalkeeper Abdelmouhib Chamakh, who made two errors against Sweden, could be replaced by Aymen Dahmen. Former Paris Saint-Germain talent Ismaël Gharbi could come into the XI on the left wing, with a switch to a more conventional 4-2-3-1. For Japan, Takefusa Kubo, forced off 15 minutes from the end against the Netherlands, is ruled out of this match and potentially the rest of the group; 33-year-old veteran Junya Ito could replace him.

SI.com predict 3-1 to Japan.

Predicted XIs
Tunisia (4-2-3-1): Dahmen; Valery, Rekik, Talbi, Abdi; Khedira, Skhiri; Achouri, Mejbri, Gharbi; Saad
Japan (3-4-2-1): Suzuki; Tomiyasu, Taniguchi, H. Ito; Doan, Sano, Kamada, Nakamura; J. Ito, Maeda; Ueda

Source: Sports Illustrated
Image: Sports Illustrated