Last 32 on the line: DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

DR Congo face Uzbekistan in the final round of Group K at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Both nations are chasing a place in the last 32 for the first time in their history, and this first-ever meeting promises a fiercely contested affair.

The advantage lies with DR Congo. Having drawn 1-1 with Portugal in the opener and then lost narrowly, 1-0, to Colombia, Sébastien Desabre's side will likely do enough to advance as one of the best third-placed teams if they win on Saturday.

Uzbekistan also need a victory, but their poor goal difference means only an emphatic win would help — and even that might not be enough. Having suffered heavy defeats to Colombia and Portugal, Fabio Cannavaro's team have fallen well short of expectations at the tournament.

The balance on the pitch is fine. The two teams were separated by just four places in the FIFA rankings before the World Cup, and their lack of tournament experience and star quality suggests the match could be decided by small margins. Even so, DR Congo are favorites based on what has been seen on the field. The African side showed impressive defensive resilience and industry in the 1-1 draw with Portugal, maintaining the same discipline in the 1-0 loss to Colombia.

The statistics back that up. Although DR Congo conceded in both matches, their defensive numbers are excellent given the quality of opposition: they restricted Portugal to just 0.65 expected goals and seven shots, and held Colombia to 0.98 xG. They also face one of the tournament's most porous defenses; Uzbekistan have conceded eight goals so far. The Asian side's worrying form stretches further back: they have won none of their last five matches and only two of the previous nine. Sports Illustrated's prediction: 1-0 DR Congo.

DR Congo are expected to abandon the 5-3-2 that has worked so far in favor of a 4-3-3 for more attacking options. Nathanaël Mbuku could come into the XI on the wing, with Newcastle United's Yoane Wissa shifted to the right to allow Cédric Bakambu to operate as the lone striker.

For Uzbekistan, changes are expected after the heavy defeat to Portugal. Akmal Mozgovoy and Oston Urunov could return to the XI; Utkir Yusupov may come in for Abduvohid Nematov, who scored an own goal against Portugal. Manchester City's Abdukodir Khusanov will look to add defensive stability, while up front Eldor Shomurodov and Abbosbek Fayzullaev must take their chances.

Predicted lineups:
DR Congo (4-3-3): Mpasi; Wan-Bissaka, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Masuaku; Mukau, Moutoussamy, Kayembe; Wissa, Bakambu, Mbuku.
Uzbekistan (3-4-3): Yusupov; Khusanov, Abdullaev, Ashurmatov; Karimov, Mozgovoy, Shukurov, Nasrullaev; Fayzullaev, Urunov; Shomurodov.

Image: Sports Illustrated