Senegal favorites, Iraq hopeful: qualifying knot in Toronto

In the final Group I match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, Senegal and Iraq face off at BMO Field in Toronto. Both teams, who lost their first two matches, will fight for third place in the group and a chance to reach the round of 32 among the eight best third-placed teams. For that reason, goal difference could play a decisive role in the outcome.

Senegal are clear favorites to claim their first win. After two tough matches against France and Norway, they will want to relax against Iraq, ranked 60th in the world. But a win may not be enough for head coach Pape Thiaw's side; a high-scoring victory is needed to rank among the best third-placed teams. A draw, meanwhile, would eliminate both teams, though it should at least treat supporters to an attacking affair.

Senegal's biggest asset is their impressive attack. Stars like Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson and Ismaïla Sarr, who scored twice against Norway, have the power to trouble the Iraqi defense. This depth and quality up front allowed Senegal to flex their offensive muscles despite two defeats. Head coach Thiaw aims to overwhelm his opponent by making the most of these stars in his squad. Kalidou Koulibaly, who committed two errors against Norway, is expected to keep his place in the heart of defense alongside Moussa Niakhaté.

For Iraq, the picture is tougher. Graham Arnold's side suffered the misfortune of being drawn into the "Group of Death"; but their pre-tournament form was also far from encouraging. The Lions of Mesopotamia were beaten by Algeria, Jordan and Venezuela in friendlies and won only two of their last eight matches. Star striker Aymen Hussein being injured after 26 minutes against France worries the head coach; Ipswich Town's Ali Al Hamadi is expected to replace him. Ex-Manchester United talent Zidane Iqbal will continue to pull the strings in midfield. While it seems possible Iraq could find a goal against Senegal's attacking power, it is hard to see it being anything more than a consolation goal.

Starting XIs
Senegal (4-3-3): Diaw; Diatta, Koulibaly, Niakhaté, Diouf; Camara, I. Gueye, P. Gueye; Sarr, Jackson, Mané
Iraq (4-3-3): Basil; Ali, Tahseen, Hashem, Doski; Ismael, Al Ammari, Iqbal; Qasem, Al Hamadi, Bayesh

Source: Sports Illustrated
Image: Sports Illustrated